LA 101-03                                                           Chance: Assignment Zero                                               23 August 02008

Welcome to Chance!!

In preparation for our first class meeting next Monday, I would like you to conduct a short experiment and record the results below. We will tabulate the results from all players, and they will be a focus of part of our activities.

Name:_________________________________________________

The Experiment: For this experiment, you need a relatively new coin. Toss the coin once with exuberance. Record the result here: _____.

If the result is heads (H): Toss the coin 200 more times and record each toss (H or T) in the grid below, filling in the table left to right and top to bottom. You can get an assistant for this, so long as it is not someone else in this class. For example, one person can toss the coin, and the other can write down the results. It is important that each toss be a good one–there should be no doubt in your mind that the coin is spinning freely.

If the result is tails (T): You have a somewhat more interesting task. Instead of tossing the coin 200 times, I want you to imagine 200 coin tosses. Put the coin away, do your best to pretend that you are an unbiased coin, and fill in the table with your results (H for heads, T for tails). Do it row by row. You should need no assistant.

We now want to count these data several ways:

1. Count the total number of heads and enter it in the first box below.

2. Count the total number of tails and enter it in the second box below. (The numbers in these two boxes should add up to 200, of course.)

For the last two boxes, we need to define a run: A run is a string of one or more tosses of the same type (H or T). For example, in the string

HTTHHHTTHHT

there are 6 runs. (Confirm this.)

3. Count the total number of runs and enter it in the third box. Remember that a run can continue from one line of your chart to the next.

4. Determine the length of the longest run and enter it in the fourth box. In the example above, the longest run has length 3 [HHH].

          Here’s the question we’ll consider on Monday: How can these four numbers help an observer to determine whether you have flipped a coin or faked flipping it?

This assignment is Y10K compliant.